AcuComm’s Waste Investment Review 2019

AcuComm has published its Waste Investment Review 2019, a complimentary 22-page summary of newly-announced waste and waste-related investments during 2019.

During 2019, AcuComm identified 917 major new investments in the global waste and waste-related sectors. That’s nearly three new investments per day. These represented a total estimated value of US$54.9 billion, or US$60 million each on average. These account for an estimated annual feedstock capacity of 195 million tonnes, equal to 212,610 tonnes each on average, or 664 tonnes per day (using a 320-day year). An estimated 529 investments involved the generation of electrical power and/or heat in some form, equal to 58% of the total. The total estimated power/heat generated from these projects is 12,635 MW, or 24 MW each on average.

The data in the report is taken from AcuComm’s proprietary Business Database. This is a database of projects compiled and maintained by us on a daily basis. The information in it is not readily available from any other source. Our analytics use a combination of reported and modelled data. We collect many thousands of points of data regarding investment values, project capacity, power output and likely timescales. This enables us to build models for determining these values on an industry-wide and industry-specific scale. As a result, we are able to provide comprehensive analytic data which remains firmly grounded in ‘real world’ information.

All of AcuComm’s clients receive this report automatically uploaded to their customer account. 

Not an AcuComm customer? Feel free to contact the report’s author and Chief Data Analyst, Andy Crofts, for further details ([email protected]) or Senior Editor, Ian Taylor ([email protected]).

Where now for waste in the UK?

The UK general election held on December 12th has produced the first stable majority government in the country since 2010, and the first such Conservative majority government since the mid 1990s. That prospect may of course thrill you or leave you deeply apprehensive. But one fact is inescapable; with a parliamentary majority of 80, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has an opportunity to reshape policy over the next five years, in more or less whatever way he wishes.

What might the effects of this be for the waste management industry? In the near and medium term, I suspect quite limited. The Conservative manifesto for the election makes only a handful of references:

‘We will continue to lead the world in tackling plastics pollution, both in the UK and internationally, and will introduce a new levy to increase the proportion of recyclable plastics in packaging. We will introduce extended producer responsibility, so that producers pay the full costs of dealing with the waste they produce, and boost domestic recycling. We will ban the export of plastic waste to non-OECD countries, consulting with industry, NGOs and local councils on the date by which this should be achieved.

‘…We will increase penalties for fly-tipping, make those on community sentences clean up their parks and streets, and introduce a deposit return scheme to incentivise people to recycle plastic and glass.’

Recycling and better use of plastics heads the field. None of these proposals is new, and many of the details have yet to be fleshed out. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of these, will be covered in the next Queen’s Speech (which, while neither binding nor necessarily comprehensive, details the government’s legislative agenda for the coming year) due in the coming days.

There’s clear commercial opportunity here for anyone involved in the plastics recycling industry, in two principal ways. Firstly, the promotion of greater recycling should spur the development of technologies to this end, in manufacturing, sorting and recycling of plastics.

Secondly, the government has flagged greater controls on exports of plastic waste, with a proposed ban on shipments to developing countries. This is in line with developments under the UN Basel Convention, which I looked at the other day. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lucky-97-basel-amendment-andy-crofts/) To date, the UK has shipped a lot of plastic waste abroad, to China until 2018 and thence to a range of countries in Asia and Africa. If this trade stops, then this provides a strong incentive for the development of greater domestic capacity. This driver is not UK -specific, but global; for example, I recently looked at Brightmark, a company looking to do just this in the USA. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-plastic-waste-valuable-turn-fuel-andy-crofts/). The opportunities are becoming global.

So much for plastics, what about the wider waste industry? In the past few years it has become harder to build new Waste-to-Energy plants in the UK. This follows a decade or more where new WtE was seen as the best replacement for landfill. The government cut funding for investment projects a couple of years back, citing the achievement of its landfill reduction aims. You can agree with that or not, but this has, I think, tended to lead to a drive for larger facilities with greater economies of scale and therefore greater likelihood of profitable commercial operation. This in turn brings greater risks in negotiating an already lengthy planning process. One such project is the 500,000 tonne per year facility planned in Andover, Hampshire, where a planning decision is due in 2020. Other plants have already been cancelled on planning grounds, such as Hoddesdon, Hertfordshire, where a 350,000 tonne plant was due to be built by Veolia, but was refused planning in February 2019.

I wouldn’t expect the new government to rush to change this harder approach to the WtE sector. It is keen to burnish its green credentials – a slightly surprising ban on fracking was announced earlier this year – and greater investment in large WtE projects probably doesn’t fit that agenda, however unfair this may be to the modern technologies now employed.

What will happen then? It may well be that small is beautiful. One new British company caught my eye recently. Heru is based in Stratford-upon-Avon, and is developing a series of small-scale WtE units that can potentially be used by businesses or even domestic homes to dispose of waste and generate power from it. Questions remain to be answered about cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency, but on paper such an approach looks game-changing if the numbers can be made to work. Test plants are in operation, with a six month trial concluding in September this year. A WtE plant in every home? It’s an intriguing idea.

And I haven’t even mentioned Brexit. Sterling rallied on news of the Conservative victory, and there is now the prospect of a more stable and orderly UK exit from the EU beginning next month. Quite where that transition will end up is open to question, but business planners will be glad to put the political horror show of the past couple of years behind them. The short term effects of Brexit on the waste sector should be muted. Trade in waste products between the UK and EU will continue, following agreements reached over a year ago, and fears of logistical difficulties at the ports will surely now recede as Johnson’s EU deal passes the new parliament in the coming weeks. In the longer term, there is scope for the UK to develop environmental approaches which differ from the EU. This is unlikely to be a political priority, however, and if it does happen will more likely be in areas of conservation unrelated to the waste sector.

Andy Crofts – Chief Analyst, AcuComm

Making plastic waste valuable: turn it into fuel?

Most developed economies are experiencing problems with plastic waste. Prior to 2018, much of it was sent to China, in principle to be recycled. In practice, much was burnt or simply ended up in the oceans. While other export destinations in Asia or Africa have taken some of the slack since the Chinese ban, tighter regulations in many of these countries have rapidly been introduced. In the longer term, therefore, dealing with plastic waste domestically is going to take a far higher priority.

Key to this is seeing plastic waste as a commodity with a useful purpose and therefore value, instead of just an environmental problem to be dealt with. Only in this way will the issue attract sufficient investment and industry attention.

Companies are already looking at the potential of the sector. One such is Brightmark Energy, based in San Francisco, California. The company, founded only in 2016, has developed a plastics renewal technology which can convert plastic waste into fuel, wax and a range of other useful end-products. The company already has one US$138 million facility under construction. This is based in Ashley, Indiana, and is expected to begin operations in 2020. It will have an annual capacity of 100,000 tons (US) of plastic. According to Brightmark, one advantage of its processes is that a single stream of mixed plastics can be used, removing the need to pre-sort waste and remove non-recyclable plastics.

The Indiana plant has experienced delays; construction was originally due to begin in 2016, but ground was broken on the site only in May 2019. Now that has happened, however, Brightmark is looking at further sites. On 5th November 2019, Brightmark announced a US-wide request for proposals (RFP) process for the site selection for locations suitable for its next set of recycling facilities. The nationwide search will begin on 19th November with a webinar and formal indication of interest submission for interested communities. Brightmark expects to invite up to 25 communities to submit formal RFP responses. Following evaluation of these, final sites will be chosen in late first quarter or early second quarter of 2020.

There is clearly growing interest in the issue of plastic waste in the US, and a rising awareness of the need for– and value of –  domestic means of dealing with it. Brightmark is not alone. AcuComm currently covers 45 active investments in the US plastic waste sector, including those listed above. Click here to check out the whole list.

Pre-flight coffee and biofuel

London Stansted Airport in the UK is set to become the first airport in the world to convert all its coffee grounds to solid biofuels after a successful trial with Cambridgeshire-based bio-bean, which claims the title of the world’s largest recycler of coffee grounds.

Passengers at London Stansted drink over six million cups of coffee a year as they pass through the terminal, creating over 150 tonnes of coffee waste. The partnership, which will begin on 21st October 2019 will see all 21 of the airport’s coffee shops, restaurants and bars segregate all spent coffee grounds before being transported to bio-bean’s hi-tech processing facility near Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire.

The grounds are then converted into Coffee Logs, each made from the grounds of around 25 cups of coffee and used in domestic wood burners and multi-fuel stoves. Recycling coffee grounds this way saves 80% on CO2 emissions than if they were sent to landfill and 70% than if they were sent to an anaerobic digestion facility and mixed with food waste.

Dealing with the waste grounds and disposable cups from global coffee consumption is a mammoth undertaking, with an estimated 2.25 billion cups of coffee being consumed each day. AcuComm’s WasteView database currently includes 16 projects featuring coffee-related waste.

Bioenergy Leads Renewable Generation in UK in Q2 2019

At the end of September 2019, the UK government released the latest Energy Trends statistical report which reveals that energy production from bioenergy and waste rose by 10.4% during the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the same period of 2018.

The increase in output is attributed to increased capacity, with an 8.5% rise in plant biomass capacity primarily due to the biomass conversion of Lynemouth power station and the conversion of another unit at the Drax Power Station in Selby, North Yorkshire.

Electricity generation from bioenergy increased by 7.2% 9.2 TWh over the second quarter of 2018. The increase in generation from plant biomass was partially offset by reduced generation from landfill gas and anaerobic digestion.

Bioenergy accounted for the largest share of the UK’s renewable generation during the quarter, at 34%, ahead of onshore wind at 22%, offshore wind at 22%, solar photovoltaics at 18%, and hydro at 3.5%.

AcuComm’s WasteView database has details of 867 active biomass energy plants, 133 landfill gas plants and 1,102 anaerobic digestion plants, valued at a total of US$88,326 million.

A Guide to WasteView Contract Finder

WasteView Contract Finder provides your business with unparalleled access to ‘real-time’ business opportunities in the Waste, Bioenergy & Recycling sectors. Projects in our industry-leading database are added and updated daily by our team of expert global researchers.

How does it work?

What’s included?

With WasteView Contract Finder, you get full access to the AcuComm database. This includes access to 7,300+ projects and the contact details of over 21,000 decision-makers that are associated with them.

Your subscription gives you unlimited downloads, the ability to search by company and an easy export functionality to populate your CRM.

Get started by identifying your new business opportunities in less than a minute.

If you’d like any more information about WasteView Contract Finder or any other of AcuComm’s products, get in touch with the team today on 01243 788686.

Dutch tax on imported waste will impact the UK

The Dutch government is to tax waste imported for incineration as from 1st January 2020 in a measure which expands on the afvalstoffenbelasting, an existing tax on domestic waste sent for incineration. This waste tax rate currently stands at €32.12 per tonne. The expansion of the tax was formally announced as part of  its 2020 budget plans published on 18th September.

The government predicts that the expansion of the tax will all but eliminate imports of refuse-derived fuel (RDF) in just three years as the tax would raise the total cost of waste incineration in the Netherlands above the average price in competing countries. RDF imports currently make up around a quarter of all of the wastes incinerated in Dutch WtE plants. The Netherlands imported approximately 1.9 million tonnes of waste for incineration in 2017.

The impact of the additional taxation will be felt keenly in the UK which exports more of its RDF to the Netherlands than any other country. In 2018, almost half of UK exports (about 1.3 million tonnes) was sent to the Netherlands.

So there promises to be tougher times ahead, not only for WtE plant operators in the Netherlands, but also for UK RDF exporters which will have to find new markets to sell to, or find alternative disposal methods closer to home, which could boost recycling, WtE and perhaps even landfill activity in the UK.

VTT biofuel trial success leading to industrial scale-up

During September, the production of biofuel by gasification of biomass residues was successfully validated in the EU’s COMSYN project. The process performance was verified with crushed bark in an 80 hour-long test run at Finland’s Technical Research Centre – VTT. The syngas conversion to Fischer-Tropsch (FT) products was conducted by Berlin-based IneraTec.

The main focus of the test was to study and verify the performance of the gas cleaning train, and especially the entire synthesis process with real wood-derived gasification gas.

“The first validation test runs successfully demonstrated the efficiency of the compact gasification and synthesis process concept, as well as the production of FT-products, waxes and other hydrocarbons” said Principal Scientist Pekka Simell from VTT.

The crushed bark was gasified in a fluidised-bed gasifier with steam as the main gasification agent. The raw gasification gas was filtered with advanced metal filters supplied by GKN Sinter Metals Filters. Tars and light hydrocarbon gases were reformed using the staged reformer concept developed by VTT. Final cleaning of the reformed synthesis gas of sulphur and other remaining contaminants was realised through a robust sorbent-based cleaning process developed by VTT.

Based on the results, industrial-scale plants in the range of 25,000-50,000 tonnes per annum will be designed and techno-economic and environmental assessments, as well as business case studies, will be carried out by the DLR German Aerospace Center and two engineering companies: Wood from Italy and ÅF-Consult from Finland.

COMSYN is a four-year EU Horizon 2020 project that lasts from 2017 to 2021 with a budget of EUR 5.1 million from EU Horizon 2020. The project consortium consists of seven partners from four different countries combining research institutes, SME and top-level European industry. The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

AcuComm’s WasteView projects database currently has 17 projects featuring the installation of Fischer-Tropsch technology, for further details search here.

Indorama Planning Massive Investment in Plastic Recycling

Thailand’s Indorama Ventures has announced plans to invest US$1.5 billion in recycling as the environmental impact of single-use plastic becomes increasingly important to consumers and as regulatory pressures mount.

Indorama’s main business is the production of PET resin, used in the manufacture of plastic bottles, fibres and tyres. In the 12 months to June 30th 2019, Indorama produced nearly 5,000 kilotons of PET.

US$1 billion will be invested over the next five years, including greenfield and brownfield mergers and acquisitions focusing on bottle-to-bottle recycling.

Indorama currently has 11 recycling sites around the world, including plants in Thailand, Mexico and France, and aims to step up its green credentials in response to new regulation being introduced by governments and changing expectations from customers.

After 2023, Indorama plans to invest an additional US$500 million by 2025 to help customers achieve then European Commission’s target of incorporating 25% of recycled plastic in PET bottles.

AcuComm’s WasteView projects database includes 187 plastics recycling facilities, of which 23 are in Asia. Click here to view them all.

Focus on France

This week I thought we’d take a look at recent waste industry activity in France. The latest Eurostat data runs to 2016. In that year, just over 304.8 million tonnes of waste was treated in France. The leading category was recycling, which accounted for 199.3 million tonnes, or 65.4% of the total. The proportion sent to landfill is falling slowly, but still amounted to 84.0 million tonnes in 2016, equal to 27.6%. Relatively little use is made of incineration. WtE plants accounted for 16.5 million tonnes in 2016, equal to 5.4% of the total. There is also a small amount of non-WtE incineration, amounting to 5.0 million tonnes in 2016.

france-graph1
Source: Eurostat

Eurostat figures, a few years old as they are, can give an idea of where things were in the past, but shed far less light on the future direction and focus for investment currently in the market. The AcuComm database currently holds 61 waste-related projects in France for the 2013-2019 period. These are worth US$3,318 million, or around US$54 million each on average. Total annual capacity is just over 6.9 million tonnes, equal to 114,074 per project and around 350 tonnes per day per project. Power/heat generation amounts to an estimated 297 MW or 4.9 MW each on average.

The greatest number of projects are for recycling facilities. There are 17 of these, although they tend to be relatively small in size with an average value of US$26 million. There are 15 WtE incineration facilities currently listed, with an average value of US$71 million. These unsurprisingly account for the bulk of the additional power capacity, at 201 MW, equal to 68% of the total.

france-graph2Source: AcuComm database, September 2019. Click here to explore the full dataset online.

Out of the 61 projects, 29 are currently operational, with 17 under way and the remainder in various stages of planning. The map below shows the location of these projects, where known.

france-mapSource: AcuComm database, September 2019