AcuComm’s Chief Analyst, Andy Crofts, examines the opportunities and challenges offered by five key African Cities in this 16-page White Paper.
Greater Manchester, with a population of around 2.8 million, is one of the UK’s single largest areas for waste disposal. In 1986, the Greater Manchester Waste Disposal Authority (GMWDA) was created, covering most of Greater Manchester. In 2018, the activities of the GMWDA were made part of the more general Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). The leading provider of waste services for the GMCA is now Suez International, which has replaced Viridor. The company signed an initial seven-year contract with the GMCA in May 2019.
The Greater Manchester area generates around 1.1 million tonnes of waste each year. This figure has not changed much over the past five years. In 2018/19, around 47% was recycled or composted, up a little from 43% in 2014/15. The biggest change has been regarding landfill. In 2014/15, Greater Manchester sent 30% of waste to landfill, equal to 331,861 tonnes. By 2018/19, this had fallen to 8%, or 85,643 tonnes. Much of this now goes to WtE incineration. This accounted for 44% of waste disposal in 2018/19 (496,692 tonnes), compared with 25% (269,861 tonnes) in 2014/15.
There are now no active landfills in the area. The GMCA continues to maintain four closed sites, but the majority of old sites were sold off for redevelopment in 2012. As noted above, landfill tonnage has reduced considerably, and what remains is presumably freighted outside the area for disposal.
Residual waste is first taken to one of five Mechanical Treatment and Reception facilities. These are located in Oldham, Salford, Sharston and Stockport, as well as Manchester itself. These sort waste and create RDF, which is taken to the Runcorn facility (see below).
Greater Manchester maintains one WtE incineration facility, at Raikes Lane in Bolton. This is an old facility, first built in 1971 and modernised in 2000. It generates up to 11 MW of electricity and has annual capacity of around 100,000 tonnes.
This is only around 20% of the total WtE registered for Greater Manchester. The bulk of the rest is sent to the Runcorn Energy From Waste Plant. This is in Cheshire, outside Greater Manchester. The site is managed by Viridor and opened in two stages in 2015. It can treat around 850,000 tonnes of waste annually, and generates a maximum of 80 MW of electrical power.
Finally, the GMCA maintains a Materials Recovery Facility, located at Longley Lane in Manchester. This can handle 90,000 tonnes of pre-separated recycling waste per year, and sorts glass, metals and plastics.
COVID-19: Lockdown challenges
The effects of the COVID-19 lockdown have been affected in two principal ways, as SUEZ seeks to implement the necessary social distancing rules. Firstly there are fewer household waste collections. Domestic waste collection across Manchester typically entails one general waste collection per week, plus fortnightly collections for paper, metal/glass/plastic, and garden/food waste. Under the COVID-19 restrictions, the weekly general collection remains, but recycling collections are now only monthly, and weekly garden/food waste collections have stopped altogether.
Secondly, as of March 23rd, all 20 public recycling centres across Greater Manchester have been closed, until further notice. Individuals and tradesmen are no longer able to take garden waste or bulky items to be disposed of.
It is far too early for statistics to appear, but there are sure to have been major changes in the composition of waste. With more people at home more of the time, the volume of domestic waste can be expected to rise, counterbalanced by a major, and probably far greater, fall in waste from businesses, shops and restaurants. Within the domestic sphere, recycling levels are likely to fall, as people put more of their recyclables into their regular bin, instead of the recycling bin (fewer collections) or taking things to the recycling centre (closed). While the overall level of waste generation is probably falling during the lockdown, dealing with these changing geographic and waste-mix patterns is a challenge for waste companies and managers.
There are other knock-on environmental effects too. The ban on food waste collections had to be briefly lifted, as councils realised that indefinitely leaving rotting food in people’s bins is a potential public health hazard. Noticeably more people have been having bonfires in their gardens, seemingly to get rid of garden waste that is not now being collected. We can probably expect a rise in fly-tipping, as people have no easy means of disposing of bulky or difficult-to-dispose-of items. As I write, there is some vague talk of a partial reopening of recycling centres, probably for those very reasons. Finally, more people are doing their grocery shopping online, and this is leading to a resurgence in single-use plastic bags, as these are the best way to deliver shopping in the days of social distancing. I am sure there will be other, as yet unforeseen, consequences.
These sorts of restrictions and challenges are of course not unique to Manchester; they apply to urban areas across the UK and indeed the developed world. When economies come out of this emergency, many things are going to look very different, and the waste sector cannot expect to remain unaffected.
 The town of Wigan is the only part of Greater Manchester to continue to manage its waste disposal separately.
 Suez press release https://www.suez.com/en/news/press-releases/suez-supports-the-greater-manchester-in-its-waster-management-services-for-an-amount-of-over-one-billion-sterling
 GMCA https://zerowastegm.co.uk/energy-and-waste-management/landfill-aftercare-2/
 GMCA https://zerowastegm.co.uk/energy-and-waste-management/mechanical-biological-treatment-facilities/
Andy Crofts: Chief Analyst, AcuComm
There is considerable concern related to the developing Covid-19 situation with many companies facing operational challenges.
As an advanced digital information company AcuComm’s operation has always accommodated remote home-office working by our staff and consultants. Therefore, in the current circumstances, I do not envisage there will be interruption to the maintenance and delivery of your AcuComm service.
We will continue to monitor developments and will contact you in the event of any change. If you have any specific questions then please contact me directly.
AcuComm has published its Waste Investment Review 2019, a complimentary 22-page summary of newly-announced waste and waste-related investments during 2019.
During 2019, AcuComm identified 917 major new investments in the global waste and waste-related sectors. That’s nearly three new investments per day. These represented a total estimated value of US$54.9 billion, or US$60 million each on average. These account for an estimated annual feedstock capacity of 195 million tonnes, equal to 212,610 tonnes each on average, or 664 tonnes per day (using a 320-day year). An estimated 529 investments involved the generation of electrical power and/or heat in some form, equal to 58% of the total. The total estimated power/heat generated from these projects is 12,635 MW, or 24 MW each on average.
The data in the report is taken from AcuComm’s proprietary Business Database. This is a database of projects compiled and maintained by us on a daily basis. The information in it is not readily available from any other source. Our analytics use a combination of reported and modelled data. We collect many thousands of points of data regarding investment values, project capacity, power output and likely timescales. This enables us to build models for determining these values on an industry-wide and industry-specific scale. As a result, we are able to provide comprehensive analytic data which remains firmly grounded in ‘real world’ information.
All of AcuComm’s clients receive this report automatically uploaded to their customer account.
The UK general election held on December 12th has produced the first stable majority government in the country since 2010, and the first such Conservative majority government since the mid 1990s. That prospect may of course thrill you or leave you deeply apprehensive. But one fact is inescapable; with a parliamentary majority of 80, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has an opportunity to reshape policy over the next five years, in more or less whatever way he wishes.
What might the effects of this be for the waste management industry? In the near and medium term, I suspect quite limited. The Conservative manifesto for the election makes only a handful of references:
‘We will continue to lead the world in tackling plastics pollution, both in the UK and internationally, and will introduce a new levy to increase the proportion of recyclable plastics in packaging. We will introduce extended producer responsibility, so that producers pay the full costs of dealing with the waste they produce, and boost domestic recycling. We will ban the export of plastic waste to non-OECD countries, consulting with industry, NGOs and local councils on the date by which this should be achieved.
‘…We will increase penalties for fly-tipping, make those on community sentences clean up their parks and streets, and introduce a deposit return scheme to incentivise people to recycle plastic and glass.’
Recycling and better use of plastics heads the field. None of these proposals is new, and many of the details have yet to be fleshed out. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of these, will be covered in the next Queen’s Speech (which, while neither binding nor necessarily comprehensive, details the government’s legislative agenda for the coming year) due in the coming days.
There’s clear commercial opportunity here for anyone involved in the plastics recycling industry, in two principal ways. Firstly, the promotion of greater recycling should spur the development of technologies to this end, in manufacturing, sorting and recycling of plastics.
Secondly, the government has flagged greater controls on exports of plastic waste, with a proposed ban on shipments to developing countries. This is in line with developments under the UN Basel Convention, which I looked at the other day. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lucky-97-basel-amendment-andy-crofts/) To date, the UK has shipped a lot of plastic waste abroad, to China until 2018 and thence to a range of countries in Asia and Africa. If this trade stops, then this provides a strong incentive for the development of greater domestic capacity. This driver is not UK -specific, but global; for example, I recently looked at Brightmark, a company looking to do just this in the USA. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-plastic-waste-valuable-turn-fuel-andy-crofts/). The opportunities are becoming global.
So much for plastics, what about the wider waste industry? In the past few years it has become harder to build new Waste-to-Energy plants in the UK. This follows a decade or more where new WtE was seen as the best replacement for landfill. The government cut funding for investment projects a couple of years back, citing the achievement of its landfill reduction aims. You can agree with that or not, but this has, I think, tended to lead to a drive for larger facilities with greater economies of scale and therefore greater likelihood of profitable commercial operation. This in turn brings greater risks in negotiating an already lengthy planning process. One such project is the 500,000 tonne per year facility planned in Andover, Hampshire, where a planning decision is due in 2020. Other plants have already been cancelled on planning grounds, such as Hoddesdon, Hertfordshire, where a 350,000 tonne plant was due to be built by Veolia, but was refused planning in February 2019.
I wouldn’t expect the new government to rush to change this harder approach to the WtE sector. It is keen to burnish its green credentials – a slightly surprising ban on fracking was announced earlier this year – and greater investment in large WtE projects probably doesn’t fit that agenda, however unfair this may be to the modern technologies now employed.
What will happen then? It may well be that small is beautiful. One new British company caught my eye recently. Heru is based in Stratford-upon-Avon, and is developing a series of small-scale WtE units that can potentially be used by businesses or even domestic homes to dispose of waste and generate power from it. Questions remain to be answered about cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency, but on paper such an approach looks game-changing if the numbers can be made to work. Test plants are in operation, with a six month trial concluding in September this year. A WtE plant in every home? It’s an intriguing idea.
And I haven’t even mentioned Brexit. Sterling rallied on news of the Conservative victory, and there is now the prospect of a more stable and orderly UK exit from the EU beginning next month. Quite where that transition will end up is open to question, but business planners will be glad to put the political horror show of the past couple of years behind them. The short term effects of Brexit on the waste sector should be muted. Trade in waste products between the UK and EU will continue, following agreements reached over a year ago, and fears of logistical difficulties at the ports will surely now recede as Johnson’s EU deal passes the new parliament in the coming weeks. In the longer term, there is scope for the UK to develop environmental approaches which differ from the EU. This is unlikely to be a political priority, however, and if it does happen will more likely be in areas of conservation unrelated to the waste sector.
Andy Crofts – Chief Analyst, AcuComm
Most developed economies are experiencing problems with plastic waste. Prior to 2018, much of it was sent to China, in principle to be recycled. In practice, much was burnt or simply ended up in the oceans. While other export destinations in Asia or Africa have taken some of the slack since the Chinese ban, tighter regulations in many of these countries have rapidly been introduced. In the longer term, therefore, dealing with plastic waste domestically is going to take a far higher priority.
Key to this is seeing plastic waste as a commodity with a useful purpose and therefore value, instead of just an environmental problem to be dealt with. Only in this way will the issue attract sufficient investment and industry attention.
Companies are already looking at the potential of the sector. One such is Brightmark Energy, based in San Francisco, California. The company, founded only in 2016, has developed a plastics renewal technology which can convert plastic waste into fuel, wax and a range of other useful end-products. The company already has one US$138 million facility under construction. This is based in Ashley, Indiana, and is expected to begin operations in 2020. It will have an annual capacity of 100,000 tons (US) of plastic. According to Brightmark, one advantage of its processes is that a single stream of mixed plastics can be used, removing the need to pre-sort waste and remove non-recyclable plastics.
The Indiana plant has experienced delays; construction was originally due to begin in 2016, but ground was broken on the site only in May 2019. Now that has happened, however, Brightmark is looking at further sites. On 5th November 2019, Brightmark announced a US-wide request for proposals (RFP) process for the site selection for locations suitable for its next set of recycling facilities. The nationwide search will begin on 19th November with a webinar and formal indication of interest submission for interested communities. Brightmark expects to invite up to 25 communities to submit formal RFP responses. Following evaluation of these, final sites will be chosen in late first quarter or early second quarter of 2020.
There is clearly growing interest in the issue of plastic waste in the US, and a rising awareness of the need for– and value of – domestic means of dealing with it. Brightmark is not alone. AcuComm currently covers 45 active investments in the US plastic waste sector, including those listed above. Click here to check out the whole list.
London Stansted Airport in the UK is set to become the first airport in the world to convert all its coffee grounds to solid biofuels after a successful trial with Cambridgeshire-based bio-bean, which claims the title of the world’s largest recycler of coffee grounds.
Passengers at London Stansted drink over six million cups of coffee a year as they pass through the terminal, creating over 150 tonnes of coffee waste. The partnership, which will begin on 21st October 2019 will see all 21 of the airport’s coffee shops, restaurants and bars segregate all spent coffee grounds before being transported to bio-bean’s hi-tech processing facility near Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire.
The grounds are then converted into Coffee Logs, each made from the grounds of around 25 cups of coffee and used in domestic wood burners and multi-fuel stoves. Recycling coffee grounds this way saves 80% on CO2 emissions than if they were sent to landfill and 70% than if they were sent to an anaerobic digestion facility and mixed with food waste.
Dealing with the waste grounds and disposable cups from global coffee consumption is a mammoth undertaking, with an estimated 2.25 billion cups of coffee being consumed each day. AcuComm’s WasteView database currently includes 16 projects featuring coffee-related waste.
At the end of September 2019, the UK government released the latest Energy Trends statistical report which reveals that energy production from bioenergy and waste rose by 10.4% during the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the same period of 2018.
The increase in output is attributed to increased capacity, with an 8.5% rise in plant biomass capacity primarily due to the biomass conversion of Lynemouth power station and the conversion of another unit at the Drax Power Station in Selby, North Yorkshire.
Electricity generation from bioenergy increased by 7.2% 9.2 TWh over the second quarter of 2018. The increase in generation from plant biomass was partially offset by reduced generation from landfill gas and anaerobic digestion.
Bioenergy accounted for the largest share of the UK’s renewable generation during the quarter, at 34%, ahead of onshore wind at 22%, offshore wind at 22%, solar photovoltaics at 18%, and hydro at 3.5%.
AcuComm’s WasteView database has details of 867 active biomass energy plants, 133 landfill gas plants and 1,102 anaerobic digestion plants, valued at a total of US$88,326 million.
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The Dutch government is to tax waste imported for incineration as from 1st January 2020 in a measure which expands on the afvalstoffenbelasting, an existing tax on domestic waste sent for incineration. This waste tax rate currently stands at €32.12 per tonne. The expansion of the tax was formally announced as part of its 2020 budget plans published on 18th September.
The government predicts that the expansion of the tax will all but eliminate imports of refuse-derived fuel (RDF) in just three years as the tax would raise the total cost of waste incineration in the Netherlands above the average price in competing countries. RDF imports currently make up around a quarter of all of the wastes incinerated in Dutch WtE plants. The Netherlands imported approximately 1.9 million tonnes of waste for incineration in 2017.
The impact of the additional taxation will be felt keenly in the UK which exports more of its RDF to the Netherlands than any other country. In 2018, almost half of UK exports (about 1.3 million tonnes) was sent to the Netherlands.
So there promises to be tougher times ahead, not only for WtE plant operators in the Netherlands, but also for UK RDF exporters which will have to find new markets to sell to, or find alternative disposal methods closer to home, which could boost recycling, WtE and perhaps even landfill activity in the UK.